In this book, the authors provide a comprehensive computational analysis of how the terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba operates. It was the first long-term study ever published on the behavior of the terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba, which mainly, but not exclusively, operates in the area of India and Pakistan. The researchers used modern computing technology, advanced mathematics, and other methods for big data analysis to gather knowledge on the operational and infrastructural network of Lashkar-e-Taiba. On the one hand, they used these methods to describe the environment in which the terrorist group operates and the actions they have undertaken over the past 20 years. On the other hand, they created a behavioral model to predict actions and develop policies to avoid future attacks.
At the beginning of their research, the authors systematically gathered data from various open literature sources such as newspapers, books, papers, reports, and selected web sites. They identified more than 770 aspects to describe the terrorist group, which cover a broad range of economic, social, cultural, and organizational factors. The data was then stored in a relational database table. In the next step, they used complex data mining algorithms to develop behavioral models based on the stochastic opponent modeling agents rule-learning algorithms. After these behavior models were learned, they made forecasts regarding future actions of Lashkar-e-Taiba. Some of those forecasts were later proven true. The authors claim that their forecasts must fulfill a set of conditions, such as consistency, accuracy, and reliability. In the last step, possible policies are designed to mitigate the risk of future attacks. The researchers fed their relational database into a fast analytic system. The system interprets the data, attempts to maximize a goal entered by the analyst, and allows the analyst to specify constraints.
The book contains 11 chapters. After an introductory chapter, the authors provide an entire chapter on the history of Lashkar-e-Taiba and its actions. In chapter 3, the authors formalize the behavior rules used throughout the book. They also introduce an algorithm to derive the rules automatically from the data they have gathered. In chapters 4 through 7, the authors discuss various types of terrorist attacks and operations on civilians, public sites, professional security forces, and security installations and infrastructure. Attacks are discussed in terms of the behavioral rules derived from the respective data. Chapter 8 completes the disquisition by discussing other types of attacks. In chapter 9, the authors describe armed clashes between Lashkar-e-Taiba and security forces, and discuss the corresponding derived behavioral rules. In chapter 10, the authors present the methodology and the mathematical definitions and algorithms used to derive the policy options for reducing the occurrence of terrorist attacks by Lashkar-e-Taiba. The last chapter of the book provides a comprehensive description of the policies and concludes the work.